Another Apple iPhone Consumer Survey: now 9% to buy

It seems like each week we get a new survey about the upcoming June release of the iPhone. The latest, from ChangeWave, is reporting the highest numbers we've seen thus far.

In their survey of over 3,000 individuals, ChangeWave reported that almost 1 out of 10 people indicated they planned to purchase the iPhone when it became available. In a worldwide market where of approximately 1 billion mobile devices, this represents approximately 90 million units - nine times Apple's target of 10 million iPhone sales for 2008. In general, if the Apple is able to capture 9% of the extremely competitive mobile device market with its inaugural foray into the market, even the most conservative analyst would likely consider such an overwhelming success.

Reports like this latest one from ChangeWave may be helping to bolster investor confidence in Apple as the iPhone launch gets closer. Shares of Apple (AAPL) are holding steady at over $100 and are expected to continue to climb.

A survey released earlier in the week suggested 6% would buy the iPhone after it's release, while Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer suggested that Apple would be lucky to get two or three percent of the market. Of course, no one can predict how many iPhone units Apple will sell when the device finally launches. Evidently, however, no one seems to mind trying. Expect another survey to be released in the next day or two.

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Comments

Apple will miss the huge part of the market that can't use Cingular service - in my area, their coverage is subpar, and i would never consider a Cingular phone, even though I would love to have an iPhone.

My gut feeling is that the iPhone, will indeed, be a huge hit in the market place. One reason is simple: SEX SELLS, and the iPhone oozes sex appeal in spades!

Already it is estimated that the iPhone has generated over $500-million dollars in free publicity, a figure that is expected to grow the nearer the date of its introduction in June.

That reminds me, I think it is TIME TO STOCK UP ON APPLE STOCK!

Kurt:

Two things:
1. It's Apple, not Mac - a "Mac" lover would love just the computer/OS itself.
2. http://www.apple.com/feedback/

> The [survey group] Alliance is a network of 10,000 highly
> qualified business, technology, and medical professionals
> in leading companies of select industries – credentialed
> experts who spend their everyday lives working on the
> frontline of technological change. [ChangeWave's site]

Nobody should be allowed to claim that they are so ignorant of statistics, logic or simple common sense that they are being honest when they extrapolate 9% of 3,000 (the number who responded; sample bias unknown) "frontline" "experts" to represent 1 billion worldwide cellphone users.

Ergo, I call BullShit. As another poster says, the iPhone may kill, but 9% is about 8% too much of a SWAG when you move off the sample base. Ergo, this report should give Apple comfort that they'll sell at least 9% * 3000 = 270 phones.

yeah this would be unprecedented if this survey was right.

I think it will kill, but 9% is a little much.

While I would love to own the iphone , I feel that Apple will miss out with a rather large % of people who could afford ane would buy one piece of high tech phone duelly because of no "no camera feature". It is becoming the norm for those in the tech business,almost all utility, legal,financial and soon medical that the new security processes do not allow camera phones on property. I now have to have two phones myself but would find it hard to justify the $ for iphone. I canvassed my work force and found that in an office of 75, only a few single people and a few that live to buy the cutting edge are considering the iphone. If a no camera option was available, or a camera that could be removed..now that is cutting edge ( press lense and it pops out). I would suspect that the buyer market would increase another 10% or more.

damn! thats mad money right there! the iphone is going to be a big hit watch

90,000,000 X 500 x .40 profit margin = 18,000,000,000

To Whom it May Concern,

My Comment is about the sms feature of the iPhone

It seems from the Mac site showing features of the iPhone that the sms software is patterned after the Treo sms software; and that is as follows:

Person A sends an sms to person B; then B replies to A

SO FAR SO GOOD, BUT THEN BEGINS THE PROBLEM:

When the second sms is exchanged between A & B - IT TURNS THE SMS INTO A CHAT AND ALL SMS TRAFFIC BETWEEN A & B IN NOW IN ONE SINGLE CHAT WINDOW

This is a major problem for users of sms in Europe, Asia and Africa; in those places sms is not a mere fun and lets chat function for teenagers, but a very important business communication tool, especially in places where using email is not readily available AND TO MY UNDERSTANDING THAT IS STILL THE MAJORITY OF PLANET EARTH.

To make matters worse, in the treo this feature cannot be shut off, and according to Treo customer service and some techies, to change this sms flawed feature, it involves major reprogramming.

I am a Mac lover and am dissapointed in:
1) That Americans are not more world-wide oriented and check sms programmes like that of the Nokia Communicator units, which are still the BEST sms software available today
2) That Mac does not have a feedback system that allows people to comment on new products and listen to the market place, the users for what they want & IF MAC DOES HAVE SUCH A FEEDBACK SYSTEM THEN THEY SURELY DID NOT AVAIL IT TO ME WHO HAS ALREADY SPENT THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS TRYING TO CONTACT THE CORPORATE HQ TO ALERT THEM TO THE SMS SOFTWARE ISSUES.

BOTTOMLINE: The iPhone (as did the Treo) will suffer much lower sales than they could have in Asia, Europe and Africa if the sms software is like I described above; I know this from the phones I see in people's hands, being a business owner of a database of 1.8 Million customers in over 100 countries AND THE TREO IS ONE OF THE LEAST USED PHONES because of the software issue described above.

Perhaps this message will get some results.

Kurt Ganesha Rinck

back to the person who use that feature...
many of them like very much because they can keep the record of conversation easily and not get lost when the reply of messages came maybe 2 or three hours after.

but some of them think they can remember everything and always get lost when forget what they talking about before. and then blame the software again.
so???? what you think?????

Kurt -

Can you explain why the combined "instant messenger" type SMS flow is a problem to business users? I'm not sure I understand the negative aspect of this feature.

As a former Treo owner, this is one of the features I miss greatly from my Treo 650. I'd look forward to it's inclusion in anything else.

I used the Treo regularly for business and never had any complications due to the combined "chat" flow of the SMS.

I think the "combined chat sms" feature is not such a problem for one-on-one messaging, but becomes a big problem when using Group sms features, because it gets extremely confusing.